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  • br The prevalence of high

    2020-08-07


    The prevalence of high, moderate and low deficit in MET-h was set to 0. This is equivalent to everyone 
    engaging in physical activity of at least 15 MET-h per week from the year 2016. This is comparable to PAF estimates.
    B 50% Reduction of proportion in each of the groups with insufficient levels of physical activity (<15 MET-h per week) by 2025
    Within this scenario, the prevalence in all groups of deficit (i.e. <15 MET-h per week) decreases with a constant annual percentage change for 10 years, so that the country-, age- and gender-specific prevalence within each group is reduced by 50% by 2025.
    Within this scenario, the prevalence in the group with high deficit in physical activity (i.e. <3 MET-h per week) is set to 0% by year 2025, by first changing the country-, age- and gender-specific prevalence with a constant annual percentage change for 9 years reaching 0.1% in 2024 and then dropping to 0% in 2025.
    All scenarios were assumed to start in 2016 to allow for comparisons with our estimates for the Nordic countries made for other modifiable risk factors [11e13]. The number of avoidable postmenopausal breast, colon and endometrial cancers under each scenario was calculated for the 30-year period, 2016e2045. All scenarios were applied separately to each age- and gender-specific prev-alence, and it is assumed that interventions move in-dividuals to the group with sufficient level of physical activity (i.e. at least 15 MET-h per week), so the decrease in any of the groups with insufficient level of physical activity (low deficit [9 to <15 MET-h per week], medium deficit [3 t to <9] and high deficit [0 to <3]) leads to an increase in the group with sufficient level of physical ac-tivity (15รพ MET-h per week).
    Sensitivity analyses were carried out to estimate the influence of varying LAT and LAG as well as the in-clusion of a trend in cancer incidence and are described in Appendix C.
    3. Results
    The numbers and percentages of avoidable cancers in the Nordic countries for the whole 30-year study SB 203580 and for the year 2045 alone are presented in Table 2, by cancer site and scenario. Under constant levels of physical activity (base scenario), approximately 1.2 million cancer cases are expected for the three studied cancer sites in the Nordic countries over the period 2016e2045. In total, 11,000 cancers out of these could be avoided by eliminating deficit in physical activity (scenario A), which corresponds to 0.9% of the expected number of cases for these three sites (Table 2). The highest numbers and percentage of avoidable cancers are seen for colon cancer (6400 cases, 1.3%).
    Table 2
    Number (#) and percentage of avoidable cancers during 2016e2045 and in 2045 in the Nordic countries, under different scenarios of physical activity levels, compared with constant levels. (The numbers in parentheses refer to the single year 2045.)
    Cancer site
    Scenario Aa
    Scenario Bb
    Scenario Cc
    MET, metabolic equivalents. a A total elimination of deficit in physical activity in year 2016.
    d Percentage of avoidable cancer cases out of total number of ex-pected cases for the three selected cancer sites. 
    Table 4
    Number (#) and percentage of avoidable cancers during 2016e2045 and in 2045 in Finland, under different scenarios of physical activity levels, compared with constant levels. (The numbers in parentheses refer to the single year 2045.)
    Cancer site Scenario Aa
    Scenario Bb
    Scenario Cc
    MET, metabolic equivalents. a A total elimination of deficit in physical activity in year 2016.
    d Percentage of avoidable cancer cases out of total number of ex-pected cases for the three selected cancer sites.
    Scenarios B and C give very similar results, indicating that approximately 0.5% of the expected number of cases for these three cancer types could be avoided. Small differences in the percentage of avoidable cancers were seen across countries (Tables 3e7). The results from the sensitivity analyses are presented in Appendix C. The number of avoidable cancers differs somewhat between the different sensitivity analyses, but the per-centage of avoidable cancers is fairly robust.
    4. Discussion
    We estimated the number of avoidable cancers of the breast, colon and endometrium in the Nordic countries
    Table 3
    Number (#) and percentage of avoidable cancers during 2016e2045 and in 2045 in Denmark, under different scenarios of physical activity levels, compared with constant levels. (The numbers in parentheses refer to the single year 2045.)
    Cancer site Scenario Aa
    Scenario Bb
    Scenario Cc
    MET, metabolic equivalents. a A total elimination of deficit in physical activity in year 2016.
    d Percentage of avoidable cancer cases out of total number of ex-pected cases for the three selected cancer sites. 
    in a 30-year period under different scenarios of improvement in leisure time physical activity levels compared with current levels. About 11,000 of these cancer cases could be avoided if everyone in the Nordic countries had a sufficient level of physical ac-tivity, which corresponds to 0.9% of the expected number of cases for the three cancer types where phys-ical activity has been shown to reduce the risk. Similar results were observed between the two other scenarios, either reducing all groups with insufficient physical ac-tivity levels by 50% (scenario B) or eliminating the group with lowest levels of physical activity (scenario C).